The Four MLB Markets
PropBetEdge models four player prop markets for MLB. Each has a different volatility profile and different analytical approach.
Home Run Props
Binary (HR or no HR). Lambda typically 0.15–0.45. Biggest odds, most variance. Best modeled with barrel%, xSLG, and pitcher EV allowed.
Total Bases
Sum of bases. Lines at 1.5 or 2.5. Smoother distribution — more games hit than HR. Best for consistent edge.
Strikeout Props
How many Ks does the starter get? Driven by pitcher stuff + opposing lineup K rate + umpire. K-Score summarizes it.
Hits Props
Does the batter get at least one hit? Or OVER/UNDER a hits line. Smoothest distribution. Best for conservative modeling.
Home Run Props: The Framework
HR props are the signature market on PropBetEdge because the Poisson model is most powerful when the event has a clean binary structure. Either the player hits one or they don't.
The Key Inputs
| Metric | What to Look For | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| xSLG | .500+ elite, .450+ above avg | Best predictor of true power output |
| Barrel% | 12%+ strong, 18%+ elite | Most predictive contact quality metric |
| Exit Velocity | 92+ mph solid, 96+ elite | Raw power — harder = further |
| Pitcher EV Allowed | Below avg = favorable | Does the pitcher give up hard contact? |
| Park Factor | 100 = neutral, 120+ = hitter-friendly | Coors adds significant HR probability |
| Wind | 10+ mph out to CF/RF/LF | Wind out boosts HR probability 10-30% |
| Platoon | Batter vs. opposite-hand pitcher | Standard platoon advantage |
| L7 xSLG | Recent form vs. season average | Hot streaks are partially predictive |
How to Read the HR Output
Strikeout Props: The K-Score System
Strikeout props are our other signature market. Unlike HR props (batter-driven), K props are primarily pitcher-driven. The model combines six inputs into a single K-Score.
K-Score Components
- 30%
Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%)
The single strongest K predictor. 15%+ is elite. Every percentage point above average adds meaningful K probability.
- 20%
CSW% (Called + Whiff Rate)
Called strikes plus whiffs divided by total pitches. More comprehensive than SwStr% — captures borderline pitches that generate called K3s.
- 20%
Opposing Lineup K Rate
How often does this lineup strike out? Against a high-K lineup, even a mediocre pitcher's K upside increases significantly.
- 15%
Stuff Quality / Velocity
Fastball velocity tier, pitch mix complexity, and Stuff+ where available. Better stuff = more swing-and-miss potential.
- 10%
Umpire K Tendency
Some umpires call significantly more/fewer strikeouts than average. A K-friendly umpire can add 0.5–1 K to a starter's expected output.
- 5%
Recent Form (L5 Starts)
K/9 and stuff trends over the last 5 starts. A slight recency adjustment to capture current form vs. season baseline.
Weather: The Most Underrated Factor
Sportsbooks update HR prop lines for starting pitchers but often lag on weather adjustments — especially wind direction and speed. PropBetEdge pulls real-time weather for every ballpark at each model run.
| Condition | Effect on HRs | How to Trade It |
|---|---|---|
| Wind 10+ mph Out (to CF) | +15–30% HR probability | Target OVER HR for batters hitting to CF |
| Wind 10+ mph In (from CF) | −15–25% HR probability | Consider UNDER HR or avoid |
| Temp 85°F+ | +5–10% HR probability | Hot, humid air travels further |
| Temp below 50°F | −5–10% HR probability | Cold, dense air suppresses carry |
| Rain delay / dome | Varies / neutral | Check /mlb/weather endpoint |
The Daily Research Workflow
- 1
Check /mlb/odds/model/top at 10AM CT
After lineups are mostly confirmed. This is the model's top OVER value plays for the day, sorted by expected stat.
- 2
Cross-reference with /mlb/weather/all
Any parks with significant wind out to the power alleys? That's a multiplier on HR probability — especially for high-barrel% batters.
- 3
Check K-Score for each starting pitcher
Any pitchers with K-Score 75+? Those are your K prop targets. Cross with the opposing lineup's K rate.
- 4
Check umpires via /mlb/umpires
K-friendly umpires behind the plate can add 0.5–1 strikeout to a starter's expected output. Worth adjusting your line expectations.
- 5
Compare model odds to book odds
Is the book paying more than fair value? That gap is your edge. Bet where the book is mispriced — not where the pick feels best.