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NFLPROPS GUIDE

Passing yards, rushing yards, receiving props, TD scorer props. Air yards, target share, snap counts — the metrics that matter.

🏈 NFL Platform → ⚙️ Calculators 🏆 Quiz

NFL Prop Types

THE PROP MARKETS

NFL props break into three categories: passing, rushing/receiving, and scoring. Each has its own key metrics.

🎯
Passing Yards
Typical line: 225–280 yards
Air yards efficiency, completion rate, and opponent pass DVOA. Don't bet passing yards in cold wind — bet them against man coverage in domes.
🏃
Rushing Yards
Typical line: 55–85 yards
Snap count %, rush attempts, and opponent rush DVOA. Bell-cow backs at 80%+ snap share in high-total games. Committee backfields are noise.
📡
Receiving Yards
Typical line: 45–75 yards
Target share is the single best predictor. WR1s on high-total games against bottom-10 pass defenses are the cleanest edge in NFL props.
🏈
Receptions
Typical line: 4.5–6.5
Target share + snap count + route participation. Slot receivers against zone in high-tempo offenses. TEs vs. linebackers are boom-or-bust.
🎰
Anytime TD Scorer
Typical odds: +120 to +350
Red zone target share is everything. 30%+ red zone target share on a 6-point favorite is a structural +EV bet almost every week.
🚀
Passing TDs
Typical line: 1.5–2.5
Game total is the primary driver — QB passing TDs correlate 0.72 with game total. Elite QBs in domes vs. bottom-5 pass defenses.

Key Metrics

THE METRICS THAT MOVE LINES

Professional NFL prop bettors track these weekly. Most casual bettors ignore all of them.

📐
Air Yards
Total distance of all targeted passes to a receiver regardless of completion. Air Yards Market Share (AYMS) = air yards ÷ total team air yards.
⚡ AYMS predicts receiving yards better than target share for deep threats
📊
Target Share
Targets ÷ total team pass attempts. The most stable week-to-week WR stat. Anything above 25% is elite. Highest correlation to receiving yards of any single stat.
⚡ #1 predictor of receiving yards — more reliable than matchup alone
⏱️
Snap Count %
How many offensive snaps a player is on the field. RBs at 80%+ are true bell-cows. WRs under 65% are rotational. Shifts within a season are the most actionable signal.
⚡ Best leading indicator of RB usage — track week-to-week changes
🎯
Route Participation %
% of pass plays a receiver runs a route. High route % + low target share = scheme usage that hasn't become production yet — breakout setup incoming.
⚡ Route% divergence from target share identifies upcoming breakouts
🏟️
DVOA by Position
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average by position group. Pass DVOA for QB/WR/TE props, rush DVOA for RB props. Negative DVOA = better defense. Best opponent quality metric.
⚡ Single best metric for evaluating the defensive matchup
🔴
Red Zone Share
Targets or carries inside opponent's 20 ÷ total red zone opportunities. Primary driver of TD probability. More important than general usage for anytime scorer props.
⚡ #1 predictor of anytime TD scorer — nothing else is close

Benchmarks

POSITION BENCHMARKS

PositionMarketTypical LineEdge ThresholdKey Metric
QB (Elite)Passing Yards260–2904%+ model edgeGame total + coverage type
QB (Mid)Passing Yards210–2505%+ (less liquid)Target rate + game pace
WR1Receiving Yards65–85Air yards share >28%AYMS + target share
WR2/SlotReceptions4.5–5.5Route participation >85%Route % + snap %
TE (Elite)Receiving Yards45–65LB matchup confirmedCoverage type + target share
RB (Bell-Cow)Rushing Yards75–95Snap share >80%Snap %, rush DVOA
Any SkillAnytime TD+130 to +280Red zone share >25%RZ targets or carries

Market Edges

WHERE THE MARKET MISPRICES

✓ Strong Setup
WR1 on high-total vs. bottom-10 pass DVOA
Game total 47.5+ · opponent bottom 10 in pass DVOA · WR at 25%+ target share. Beats the line over 60% historically.
✓ Strong Setup
Bell-cow RB vs. bottom-5 rush DVOA
80%+ snap share · opponent rush DVOA below −12% · high game pace. The floor is almost guaranteed — just needs the game to stay close.
⚡ Market Inefficiency
Slot receivers in cold outdoor games
Books adjust deep routes down in cold/wind. Slot route usage is weather-independent — the market overcorrects, creating value on short routes in cold games.
⚠ Avoid
Committee backfield rushing yards
Any RB under 55% snap share is a fade regardless of talent. Game script changes unpredictably. Only bet RB props when snap share is clear and dominant.
✗ Common Mistake
Betting TDs off last week's score
TD regression is brutal. A WR who scored twice last week has no higher TD probability this week unless red zone share is elite. The market prices recency — you shouldn't.
⚡ Advanced Edge
TE vs. linebacker coverage
When a top-5 TE draws a linebacker in coverage, the yards upside is significant. Check pregame coverage assignments — this doesn't price in until kickoff.

Research Process

HOW TO BUILD YOUR CARD

A repeatable 5-step weekly process for identifying +EV NFL props before the market catches up.

1
Pull the week's game totals first
High-total games (47.5+) generate more passing volume, which inflates WR/QB props. Start here to filter which games deserve attention.
2
Check snap count and target share trends (L4 weeks)
Last 4 weeks is the right window — enough sample, recent enough for role changes. Anything that shifted in the last 2 weeks is most actionable.
3
Map opponent DVOA by position
Match your target player to their opponent's positional DVOA ranking. WR vs. bottom-10 CB, RB vs. bottom-10 rush defense.
4
Calculate EV at the offered line
Use the EV calculator at /tools. 58% win probability at a line implying 50% = 8% edge — worth a bet at reasonable size.
5
Track closing line value
Sharp money shows up in closing line movement. If your bet is moving the right direction before kickoff, you're on the right side. CLV is the proof of skill.

Platform Status

NFL PLATFORM LAUNCHING
SEPTEMBER 2026

The same Poisson model powering MLB — adapted for NFL. Air yards, target share, DVOA-adjusted odds. 14 workers already deployed.

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