A market on one slice of a game
A prop price is a probability wearing a costume. Learning to take the costume off is the whole of Foundations.
A proposition market — a prop — prices one specific outcome inside a game rather than the final result. A batter recording a hit. A pitcher going over 6.5 strikeouts. A receiver clearing 64.5 yards. A fight ending inside the distance.
Props exist for almost every sport in the PropBetEdge network, and they share one structure: a line (the threshold), two sides (over/under, yes/no) and a price on each side.
| Sport | Example market | Line | Stat type |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Batter total bases | Over 1.5 | Count (0, 1, 2…) |
| NFL | Receiving yards | Over 64.5 | Continuous-ish |
| NBA / WNBA | Points + rebounds + assists | Over 31.5 | Sum of counts |
| NHL | Shots on goal | Over 2.5 | Count |
| UFC | Fight goes the distance | Yes / No | Binary |
The price is a probability
Every price implies a probability. At −110 the book is asking you to risk $110 to win $100 — a deal that only breaks even if the outcome happens at least 52.4% of the time. That number is the implied probability.
implied(+X) = 100 / (X + 100) // +150 → 40.0% implied(−X) = X / (X + 100) // −150 → 60.0%
Two consequences follow immediately:
- A price is only "good" or "bad" relative to your estimate of the probability. There is no such thing as good odds in isolation.
- Both sides of a market usually imply more than 100% combined. The excess is the vig (vigorish, juice) — the book's margin — covered in Vig & fair odds.
The five ideas everything else builds on
- Odds formats are just notation for the same payout — American & decimal odds.
- Implied probability converts a price into the probability it requires — Implied probability.
- Vig means the market's probabilities are inflated; removing it gives a fair estimate — Vig & fair odds.
- Expected value combines your probability with the price — Expected value.
- Closing line value is how you check, after the fact, whether your prices were good — Closing line value.
PropBetEdge products publish probabilities, projections and model context. Foundations teaches you how to compare those numbers with a price yourself — and how much to trust the comparison.
Most individual outcomes are noise
A 30% outcome fails seven times in ten. A 60% outcome fails four times in ten. Judging a single prop by whether it hit is judging a coin by one flip. Every lesson in this academy returns to that point: probabilities are statements about many repetitions, and a single result tells you very little about whether the probability was right.
Learn explains probability, pricing and model outputs. It does not tell you what to bet, and no amount of math removes risk. If gambling stops being fun, stop — 1-800-GAMBLER (US).