Break-even equals implied probability
break-even = 1 / decimal −110 → 52.38% +150 → 40.00% −200 → 66.67%
| Price | Break-even | Wins needed per 100 |
|---|---|---|
| −200 | 66.7% | 67 |
| −150 | 60.0% | 60 |
| −110 | 52.4% | 53 |
| +100 | 50.0% | 50 |
| +150 | 40.0% | 40 |
| +250 | 28.6% | 29 |
Why "hit rate" alone is meaningless
A 60% hit rate is excellent at +100 and losing at −200. A 35% hit rate is losing at +150 and excellent at +250. Any track record quoted without prices tells you almost nothing about profitability — which is why PropBetEdge track records report the context behind each graded call. See PBE Picks & track records.
Limitations
Break-even applies to the long run. Over 50 bets at −110 a true 52.4% bettor will finish anywhere from roughly 45% to 60% just from variance — see the Monte Carlo simulator.