Path 02 · Intermediate
Model Literacy
Distributions, Poisson, simulation, calibration, Brier score and log loss, sample size, overfitting and holdouts — how to judge any model’s numbers.
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Distributions
A player is projected for 6.2 strikeouts and the line is 6.5. Is the over likely?
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Poisson
How do you turn "0.35 expected home runs" into a probability — and when is that math wrong?
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Simulation
What does "10,000 simulations" actually tell me?
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Calibration
When a model says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
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Brier & log loss
How do you grade a probability, not a pick?
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Sample size
How many results before a record means something?
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Overfitting & holdout
How do I know a model’s published numbers are not flattering itself?
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Confidence vs certainty
What does "High confidence" actually promise?
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Reading a model
I am looking at a model output. What should I check, in what order?