Path 01 · Beginner
Foundations
Odds, implied probability, the vig, break-even, expected value, bankroll and closing line value. The math every other lesson assumes.
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Prop bets 101
What is a prop, and what is its price actually saying?
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American & decimal odds
How do I read +150, −120, 2.50 and 3/2 — and are they the same thing?
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Implied probability
What probability does a price require me to believe?
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Vig & fair odds
How much is the book charging, and what does the market really believe?
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Break-even rate
How often does this have to win just to not lose money?
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Expected value
If my probability is right, what does this price return on average?
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Bankroll & sizing
Given an edge estimate, how big should a stake be — and what happens if the estimate is wrong?
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Closing line value
Was the price I took better than where the market finished?