Learning paths
From reading a price to reading a model.
35 lessons across 4 paths, about 5 hours of reading in total. Each lesson answers one real question with formulas, worked examples and its limitations. Progress is saved in this browser only.
Foundations
Odds, implied probability, the vig, break-even, expected value, bankroll and closing line value. The math every other lesson assumes.
- Prop bets 101
- American & decimal odds
- Implied probability
- Vig & fair odds
- Break-even rate
- 3 more lessons
Model Literacy
Distributions, Poisson, simulation, calibration, Brier score and log loss, sample size, overfitting and holdouts — how to judge any model’s numbers.
- Distributions
- Poisson
- Simulation
- Calibration
- Brier & log loss
- 4 more lessons
Live Intelligence
Game state, live win probability, lineup and withdrawal changes, and the pitch, possession and round as live units.
- Game state
- Live win probability
- Pregame vs live
- Context changes
- Pitch · possession · round
Inside PropBetEdge
How to read PBEcast, HR Targets, Touchdown Targets, PBE Picks, Fight DNA, the Fight Simulator, Tennis DNA, Soccer Player DNA, track records and confidence labels.
- Network tour
- PBEcast & live casts
- HR Targets
- Touchdown Targets
- PBE Picks & track records
- 8 more lessons
Suggested order