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Inside PropBetEdge · Lesson 12 of 13

Reading Soccer Player DNA

A striker is 85th percentile in shots per 90. What does that tell me, and what does it not?

Product literacy8 min readSoccer

What Player DNA is

As stated on the product

“Descriptive, not predictive: nothing here is a forecast.”

Player DNA ranks a player's rates against the other qualified players in the same competition and season. The shipped metrics are grouped as:

GroupMetrics
ScoringGoals per 90, shots per 90, shots-on-target rate, goals per shot
CreationAssists per 90, key passes per 90, goals + assists per 90
RoleStart rate, minutes per appearance
DisciplineCards per 90 (lower is better)

Families such as ball progression, defensive actions, aerial ability and set-piece contribution are part of the product's design, but they are not shipped metrics today. Where the source cannot support a metric — line-breaking passes need player positions, carries need carry events, pressure resistance needs a pressure flag — the methodology marks it blocked rather than approximating it.

Per-90 rates and the minutes gate

rate per 90 = count × 90 / minutes played
qualified = at least 450 nominal minutes in the competition-season
Worked example · why a minutes gate
  1. Illustrative: a substitute scores 2 goals in 110 minutes → 1.64 goals per 90.
  2. A starter scores 9 in 1,800 minutes → 0.45 per 90.
  3. The substitute's rate is higher — on a twentieth of the sample, often against tired defences late in matches.
The gate keeps tiny samples from topping the percentiles. Below it, the profile shows counts but no ranks.

Minutes are nominal — built from lineups and substitutions — not a provider's playing-time figure. Below 450 minutes the profile says how many of the required minutes the player has and shows complete counts with no ranks. A metric without a rank shows "no rank"; nothing is imputed, and the radar draws only ranked metrics.

What it does not prove

  • Not a forecast. An 85th-percentile shots rate says the player shot more than most qualified peers — not how many shots the player will take next match.
  • Role and team shape it. A forward on a dominant team gets more shots; the percentile does not separate player from system.
  • Cohorts differ. A percentile in one league is not comparable with a percentile in another.
  • Finishing is noisy. Goals per shot over a season is mostly variance — see Sample size.
Limitations

Cohorts are the whole competition-season rather than position groups, so defenders and forwards are ranked together on attacking rates. Read the metric with the player's position in mind.