What a target is
For each game, Touchdown Targets names at most a primary and a secondary target: the players the model rates most likely to score an offensive touchdown. Each target shows the model probability, the market's probability where a price exists, and the drivers that moved the number.
Reading a target card
- Model vs market. The gap is only meaningful against a de-vigged market probability — anytime touchdown prices often carry heavy margin. See Vig & fair odds.
- Drivers are shown only when they actually moved the probability, so an absent driver is information too.
- Abstentions. When no player clears the bar, or a source the decision depends on did not answer, the game shows no target. That is a designed outcome, not a bug.
- Receipts. Targets carry a receipt so the record can prove a target was issued before kickoff and not edited afterwards.
Tracking vs official
New NFL models issue real, frozen, graded decisions in a tracking lane until they pass a pre-set sample gate. Tracking results are a verified record, kept separate from the official record and never merged into it. The product page shows which lane a target belongs to.
Limitations
Touchdowns are low-count, high-variance events: a 30% scorer does not score 7 times in 10. Judge the product by its graded record over many weeks, not by one Sunday.