What HR Targets is
As described on the product
Model-ranked home run probabilities for today’s MLB slate, calibrated from Statcast contact quality, batter and pitcher profiles, park environment, weather, umpire tendencies and expected plate appearances.
Each row is a probability that the batter homers at least once in the game. The ranking orders the slate by that probability.
Reading a row
- 22% means roughly 1 game in 4.5 for a batter in this spot.
- Fair price = 1 / 0.22 − 1 → about +355.
- Even the day's best target fails about 4 times in 5. A slate of ten 20% targets typically produces about two home runs, and zero or four are both ordinary days.
The ranking is the product; the misses are expected.
- Expected plate appearances is part of the probability. A batter moved down the order loses opportunities.
- Environment inputs (park, weather, umpire) shift probabilities modestly; they are context, not a switch.
- Convert any row with the odds converter and compare with a price using the EV calculator, including an uncertainty band — see Poisson for why small probability errors matter at long prices.
Limitations
Lineups post late. Probabilities computed before a lineup is confirmed can change when it is. Check the Track Record for how graded calls are recorded rather than judging from memory of a few misses or hits.